CAN ROMNEY BE STOPPED? HISTORY SAYS YES!
Romney has won only two of the four contests thus far…we have 46 states to go. Why do so many pundits believe that makes him the inevitable nominee?
Let’s take a look at the most similar republican primary of the last 50 years…1976 between Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford.
The biggest difference in 1976 was that Ford was an incumbent president being challenged in his own party by a B-list actor turned Governor. It should have been a landslide for Ford and for the first few months, it was.
Reagan lost EIGHT of the first nine contests, some of them 94% to 5% and 83% to 15%. The pundits said it was over, he should get out and support the “inevitable” nominee.
Then came Texas!
Reagan creamed Ford in Texas on May 1 and then went on to win more than half of the remaining contests and came within just a handful of votes at the convention of defeating the incumbent president.
*side note* When Reagan spoke after Ford’s victory speech, everyone in the arena knew they had chosen the wrong man and came back in 1980 to get it right!
The point is that this race is far from over and Romney CAN still be stopped. We have 46 states to go and Romney only has 5% of the delegates he needs to win.
And here is the fun part for me…Texas sits poised to be right about the same time in this contest as it was in 1976. About half the delegates will be chosen by the time this battle gets to Texas on April 3rd. I predict Romney will be in the lead, but not near enough to come anywhere close to winning. In fact, it will not be far from a tie and Texas can be the one to start a huge shift AWAY from Romney.
The major differences between 1976 and 2012 are entirely in the favor of conservatives.
1. Romney is N
OT an incumbent president and 75% of the republican voters have never been convinced he is the guy to support.
2. There was no Tea Party, no conservative uprising in 1976. There is an army of citizens ready to take action to save our nation and we know that Romney is not a Ronald Reagan no matter how much he tries to sound like him in the debates.
3. Back in 1976, the big three Networks and major newspapers controlled the flow of information to voters. Today we have Facebook, Twitter, cable news, youtube, and all the alternative media. The people have just as much, if not more, power than the machine.
So, what will it take to stop Romney?
1. Conservatives have to suck it up and realize that our dream candidate is not in the race. There are only two viable options…Romney or Newt. Our only chance of getting anyone other than those two is for everyone to get behind Newt and force this thing to the convention where a Huckabee type candidate could be nominated just as James Garfield did on the 36th ballot in 1880. The more likely scenario is that Newt just flat out beats Romney and becomes our nominee and then president. This is a scenario I’m perfectly comfortable with and other conservatives should also become comfortable with it unless they want Romney as the nominee and Obama as the president.
2. Santorum has to get out of the race and support Newt. His 10% to 13% would almost all go to Newt and be enough for Newt to sweep the South, as well as dominate on Super Tuesday.
3. Liberty loving, Christian conservatives who want limited government and are currently supporting Ron Paul must become more strategic with their votes. He cannot and will not be the nominee. You have got to ask yourself whether you want Obama to have four more years, Romney to possibly win and be surrounded by moderates, or Newt to win and be surrounding by wise counsel like David Barton, Mat Staver, Don Wildmon, Jim Garlow, and other Christian leaders. THINK and be strategic! The 5% of Ron Paul’s 9% that is made up of the “legalize drugs” crowd is not ever going to vote for someone else, but the other 4% made up of smart conservatives can make the difference in this race if they are strategic.
Romney can be stopped.
Obama can be defeated.
It’s up to us.
HELP SPARK A REVOLUTION!
I’m looking for a High School or College student that would like to use their next research paper to be part of re-igniting the Torch of Freedom across America!
Can you imagine how many of our national problems would be solved if every single American read, studied, and understood the founding documents of our Nation?
In 2001, I passed the Teach Freedom Act (HB1776), which set up the concept of Celebrate Freedom Week across Texas schools and several states followed our lead. This law requires that every student spend time during the designated week studying the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.
Though the law is mandatory, most schools are not participating, which means that most students educated in America get very little to zero exposure to the founding principles of America.
My family wants to launch an all out effort to maximize the implementation of Celebrate Freedom Week across the entire nation and we nee
d your help! As we prepare for this push, we are looking for a High School or College student that would like to do a research paper on the impact of this one piece of legislation. The student’s paper could chronicle which states have adopted Celebrate Freedom Week and when they did so, as well as compile helpful links to websites in those states that we can later share with people in those states that want to help with implementation. The paper could compile examples of activities schools have engaged in as part of CFW and also include teaching tools that people across the nation have developed for the week.
We will then take the information gathered in the student’s paper and include it in our new internet launch for the Spring of 2012, using that information to equip and inspire patriots across America to bring Celebrate Freedom Week to their local school districts.
The student or students who choose to help with this project will not only complete a research assignment they had to do anyway, they will choose a topic that allows them to be a very vital part of sparking a freedom revolution across America!
Please spread the word and have students send their papers to info@RickGreen.com no later than February 15, 2012.
My Iowa Caucus Speech for Perry & Why I hope South Carolinians Agree With Me!
Last week when our family traveled to Iowa to speak for Gov. Perry at one of the caucus meetings, it forced me to sit down & really think through why he was still my number one choice out of the conservatives in this race. This is what I told those Iowa caucus goers that night & what I’d like to also say to the folks in South Carolina who will now have the most influence on which conservative will be in a position take on Romney for the nomination:
“My name is Rick Green and I’m a former Texas state representative. I spent the last 10 years working with David Barton & WallBuilders, hosting David’s radio program and speaking around the nation on the Founding Fathers and the Biblically based Constitutional principles that made America the greatest nation in the history of the world. We have devoted our lives to preserving and passing liberty to the next generation.
My family and I spent our own money to fly here to be with you in Iowa tonight, all the way from the big city of Dripping Springs, TX. In fact my 17 yr old nephew worked hard to earn enough money to buy his own plane ticket…why? because we care deeply about our nation and we believe your decisions tonight will have a huge impact on the future of our children.
It was not easy to decide who we would support in this race. We have struggled just like, according to the polling, most of you. I’ve been excited about one candidate, then disappointed…excited about another candidate then disappointed. 
I feel like I’ve gone through candidates the way Elizabeth Taylor went through husbands.
It’s a tough situation you are in as the first ones to vet these candidates. But I don’t think we have all struggled because there are no good candidates, I believe our decision is difficult because there are several great candidates…and like all of us, they have great flaws. Whether its Romneys flip-flopping, Perry’s debate gaffes, Newt’s personal issues, Bachmann’s exaggerated attacks, or Santorum’s defensive communication style that makes it very hard for him to win votes…every one of them has positives and negatives we each have to weigh as we make our choice.
So the only thing I know to do is ask the same two questions I ask in every political race…which candidate MOST shares my values AND can get the job done? I don’t know about you, but I have yet to find a candidate I agree with 100% of the time, so I have to find the one that most shares my values BUT they must also be effective…they have to be able to win the election and then be effective in office. None of us want someone that is only one or the other…if they agree with us on the issues 100% of the time, but they can’t get elected or they are unable to get things done once in office, then we’ve done nothing to save our nation. If they are really good at getting elected and maybe even good at passing legislation, but they have the wrong values or their values change with the wind, that’s no good either. They must BOTH share our values AND be effective.
For me, as a constitutional conservative, Rick Perry stands out, by far, as the one candidate with a proven track record of solid conservative values AND the ability to win tough elections followed by effective governing leadership that actually takes our conservative philosophy and makes it into policy.
Have I agreed with every single decision he has made? No, of course not. In the 13 years he has been either Lt. Gov or Gov there have been literally thousands of bills and policy issues and yes, there were 3 or 4 where I disagreed with him and said so publicly…but 3 or 4 mistakes, which he admits, out of thousands? That’s an impressive record!
He is without question the most pro-life, traditional values, pro-free market governor in the nation. He not only has the right positions, he has an extremely successful record of getting legislation passed and moving the conservative agenda forward. Just pick an issue and he has delivered in Texas (parental notification and parental consent and requiring a sonogram before an abortion, as well as defunding planned parenthood, passing a marriage amendment that protects traditional marriage, tort reform, 2nd amendment protections, securing the border, homeschooling protections, charter schools, religious liberty statutes, voter ID, and he signed my legislation requiring kids to study the declaration and the constitution every year at every grade level. I can’t think of a sing
le conservative issue where he has not delivered a victory and moved the conservative agenda forward.
So does he share your conservative values and does he have a track record of getting the job done? Well, as Sara Palin said when she came to Texas to campaign for his re-election as governor…”u betcha!!”
So the only question remaining is “can he beat Barack Obama?”
I know he had a couple of bad nights in the debates and that’s really the one thing that gives most people, including me, some pause and concern. But let’s look at the total picture, not just a snapshot of one or two minutes…he has consistently gotten better and better in the debates, he is the best in the field at retail politics, and he will be more than ready for Obama When the general election gets here.
In virtually every statewide race back home people, including me sometimes, said he could not win and then he won in landslides.
He is the only one in the race about which we can say ALL of the following things ( each candidate can say one or two of these):
1. He was against Obamacare and the individual mandate from the beginning, never nuanced, never waffling.
2. Executive experience at the highest level…11 years at the helm of the 13th largest economy in the world where 1 million jobs were created while the rest of the nation lost 2 million. There is a reason for that! He put in place the laws and policies that created an atmosphere of exceptionalism and free enterprise…exactly what we need on the federal level!
3. A lifetime of being faithful to his wife and his principles and being a great role model for young people. From eagle scout to wearing the uniform of our military to a lifetime of public service without any corruption, not a single scandal…rare in our nation today!
4. He gets what we are up against in the war against radical Islam, and he will take the steps necessary to protect our nation.
Rick perry is a man that understands the times AND knows what to do.
I urge you to support a candidate that BOTH shares our values AND can get the job done and that man is Gov Rick Perry.”
So that’s what I said in Iowa and that’s what I’m still saying. My wife, Kara, asked me the other day, “how is that we have the most successful governor in the nation by any measurement in the race and yet the most UNsuccessful governor in the race is winning (Romney)?” Well, I’ve listed the reasons throughout this blog as we analyzed the candidates. The question now is whether South Carolina will judge these candidates on the full picture and nominate the one that has a proven track record of moving the conservative agenda forward!
New Hampshire Debates Round #2 – What a Difference Between Night & Day!
There is probably a clever way to start this blog comparing politicians to vampires, but I haven’t had enough sleep to think of one, so I’ll just fall back on Bill Bennett’s line that “sunlight is the best disinfectant.”
For all his smoothness last night in New Hampshire at delivering conservative rhetoric extremely, extremely well, the Mitt Meister was not on his best game at all this morning. He was so good last night that he even avoided that look of constipation or annoyed boredom (I can’t tell which it is) he seems to always have when listening to a question or another candidate. I was so glad to see it replaced by the pleasant look he had last night.
But “the look” was back this morning from the very first question.
I thought I was going to need a barf bag when listening to Romney’s soliloquy about how he is not a politician and chose not to run again for Governor because he wanted to be in the private sector. THANK YOU NEWT GINGRICH for being willing to call him out on that nonsense and remind both Romney and the world that Mit would have been a lifelong politician if he was electable enough to have won more than one of the many elections he’s been in since the early 1990’s! My favorite line of the morning debate was from Newt: “Can we drop a little bit of the pious baloney?”
Mitt did not help himself or the GOP by responding to Newt with a trite remark about being “happy” he made Ted Kennedy take out a mortgage on his house in order win the race. Just what we need, another example for Obama to use against Romney as the rich, fat cat actually enjoying the process of forcing people to take out a second mortgage? $10,000 bets, forcing people to take out mortgages, $200 Million Dollar man, and made millions laying off people through Bain Capitol. The dems are licking their chops.
Santorum had the chance to come into these NH debates as the surprise victory boy wonder that should have been smiling and shining and projecting an extremely positive message and vision. Instead, he stayed in his defensive toned attack mode that left him viewed as part of the petty bickering, rather than the optimistic alternative. Santorum’s choice of language in calling Ron Paul “disgusting” coupled with his demeanor is a guaranteed losing formula. When he interrupts over and over again, he thinks it shows him as tough, but it just comes across as whiny and petty over and over again. He did, however, do extremely well in handling that tired old liberal question of what would you do if your son came to you and said he was gay. Ironically, he handled this line of questioning far better than Mitt Romney who is self proclaimed champion of gay rights.
Rick Perry was at the best he’s been and for the first time in this race, he was the best on the stage. Two stellar debate performances within a 15 hour period just may get people to give him a second look. Perry’s first answer was superb in taking David Gregory’s “who is electable” question back to what caused the Tea Party victories of 2010. My second favorite line of the debate was Perry saying that Obama had poured gas on the bonfire of out of control spending that had already been lit and burning because of the Washington insiders on the stage. Perry also did a great job in describing the American people want jobs, not a handout. They want the dignity of providing for their family and he made a succinct, coherent argument for why he is the only guy on the stage that has executive experience creating the right environment for job growth. His best applause lines were both times he drove home the need and benefits of Right to Work.
Newt was at his best putting people (and the EPA) in their place (whether Mitt’s faux non-politician argument or the moderators ridiculous questions), but he also shown incredibly well when laying out just how bad Obama’s job killing energy policy has hurt the nation and with one breath in 30 seconds he lays out both the solution and a defense of supply-side economics. The man really has no rhetorical equal in this race or in my lifetime.
Huntsman had an extremely good moment early in the morning debate when he responded to Romney’s attack for Huntsman “putting his country first.” His daughter also did a great job on Fox News defending her father and their family from the absolutely embarrassing and over the top Ron Paul attack ads that included the Huntsman’s adopted children. That’s all the nice things I can come up for Huntsman, so I’ll move on!
The New Hampshire vote is 48 hours away, but I’m not that anxious or excited because it is not likely to have any real impact on the race. There is a very small chance that Huntsman does well enough to keep going, but my bet is that he’s done by the end of the week. There is also a small chance that Santorum could do really well and prove himself a viable candidate, but I personally think his betting on New Hampshire at all was a mistake. He will do poorly and it will cause more doubts for him. New Hampshire means nothing for Perry and not much for Newt, unless Santorum can crash sooner, rather than later, so we still have a chance at getting an alternative to Romney that can actually win.
So the real fun begins in South Carolina on Wednesday!
New Hampshire debate…Mitt was flawless..unfortunately!
I was teaching a Constitution Class tonight and did not get to watch the debate until just now (2AM), so I apologize for just now posting to the blog. Here’s what I took away from the debate:
1. Unfortunately, if I was a total newcomer and knew nothing about any of the candidates, I would have viewed Romney as the best candidate. I say unfortunately, because I am not a newcomer and I know that his record does not reflect the wonderful, Reaganisque rhetoric we heard tonight. He is the best evidence for the evolutionary concept of “adaptation” I have ever seen. He has truly mastered the conservative language and soaring patriotic & free enterprise rhetoric. If I closed my eyes, it sounded like he was giving one of my speeches on the Declaration of Independence and a defense of “the pursuit of happiness” right out of my book, Freedom’s Frame. If I believed he truly was a converted conservative that would govern the way he is talking, I’d be excited. But I don’t buy it. I still believe he is just a slick politician that has had 5 years and millions of dollars to simply shift his rhetoric to where the votes are in the republican primary and he’ll shift right back when he thinks he needs to for political expediency. So the real question for me after tonight, is that if he impressed a skeptic like me, did he do so well as to win over a lot of the leery conservatives who feel like they have nowhere else to go now that all the other conservatives seem so unelectable? South Carolina and Florida will answer that question for the rest of the nation.
2. Santorum was not attacked as much as I expected, but he still did not seem ready or capable to deftly handle the level of scrutiny that is only beginning. He just does not inspire and he still strikes me as having the quirks and rigidity that will make it impossible for him to win…but he has about two more weeks to prove me wrong. Mitt saved Santorum tonight by taking on the absolutely ridiculous “contraceptive” issue. Even though it took a painful 15 minutes, Mitt finally, reluctantly (because he is always so timid in being w
illing to throw a punch), knocked Mr. Snuffleupagus (I know that’s not George’s name, but I’ve called him that since he worked for Clinton) out and embarrassed the ABC folks for this stupid line of questioning. Anyway, back to Santorum. Not a terrible night, but nothing there to convince me yet that he can really last. He seemed not ready for prime time and still had not shed the annoying communication style that will cost him dearly. He had several one liner jokes that were really good material, but his mannerisms and facial expressions and tonality never gave us the chance to laugh…blown opportunities that fuel my fears about his effectiveness on this stage.
3. Newt was great as always, especially on slamming media and exposing the anti-Christian bias. Has anyone noticed how often the other candidates say “just as Newt said?” He was masterful on the enormity of the radical Islam question. Newt, like Santorum, has to battle the “I’m angry at the world” communication style…but he just seems to pull it off in a way that makes us feel he is knowledgeable and serious, not self-righteous and condescending. He and Mitt are the only ones that consistently come across as completely capable of handling the job from day one. I did NOT say they were they only ones capable, I simply said they are the only ones that consistently come across that way. Which means that even though the two Ricks can definitely do the job, people that don’t know them are not being convinced right now.
4. Perry had some of his best answers since the first debate and some of the best answers of the night. He especially did well when he inserted himself towards the end with a very articulate, passionate, and inspiring answer about the right vision and policies that can get things working again. The other answer I liked best was when he criticized Obama’s Administration for their war on religion. Perry was much better spoken tonight and continues to get better and better in the debates. Whether it’s too little too late remains to be seen, but he is doing the right things to be in a position to be the go to guy if two things happen: 1) Santorum falters fast, and 2) the attacks on Newt keep him from being the conservative alternative.
5. Ron Paul consistently good and bad, not much different than he always is. I’m not sure who got the best of his exchange with Newt over supposed draft dodging. Newt rattled off a very strong list of military bona fides that made Paul look like he over-reached. However, I always think the guy that actually put on the uniform and risked his life wins these questions no matter what the other guy has done…so Paul & Perry are the only ones of the remaining six with that advantage. Perry could have knocked this one out of the park when given the softball question , but he chose to go to another issue with his answer…not the strategy I would have advised, but his answer turned out to be good enough to keep me from complaining much…I just think he missed a big opportunity. Paul also over-reached in his attack on Santorum, but I loved Paul’s final comment of the night when they were asked where they would be if not at the debate…he said he’d be at home reading an economics textbook. That had me laughing.
6. Huntsman…did he really speak Mandarin during the debate or was I watching a Saturday Night Live skit? He’s going nowhere fast. He defended Civil Unions, said he would not send in troops if there was a chance they would not come home alive (I’m sorry, but that’s just naïve), went soft on China, and he makes me feel like I’m back in college listening to a boring professor that is going to dock my grade if I skip class like I want to more and more as the semester goes on.
Style matters and candidates have got to become better at articulating the message and selling conservatism. It’s a sad irony. Moderates like Romney learn to sell conservatism well in order to mask their record, while conservatives think their record will sell conservatism…but it takes BOTH true conservative convictions/actions AND the ability to sell them & articulate them.
The bottom line is that at this point the republican party is poised to elect style over substance simply because Romney has become the most polished candidate and has learned how to talk the conservative language, while the true conservatives are unable to bring all conservatives together because they either don’t articulate their own truly conservative beliefs well (Santorum and Perry) or their flaws are outweighing their well articulated beliefs and record (Newt).
I hope it does not end up that way, but that’s where the odds are favored. I do still hold out hope that Santorum, Perry, or Newt can be the last conservative standing after Iowa and get the others behind him. I can envision scenarios where it could be any of the three, but if they all three stay in after Florida, expect Romney to be the nominee and that gives Obama a very good chance at re-election.
Latest Articles
Get Connected
