New Hampshire debate…Mitt was flawless..unfortunately!

I was teaching a Constitution Class tonight and did not get to watch the debate until just now (2AM), so I apologize for just now posting to the blog. Here’s what I took away from the debate:

1.         Unfortunately, if I was a total newcomer and knew nothing about any of the candidates, I would have viewed Romney as the best candidate. I say unfortunately, because I am not a newcomer and I know that his record does not reflect the wonderful, Reaganisque rhetoric we heard tonight. He is the best evidence for the evolutionary concept of “adaptation” I have ever seen. He has truly mastered the conservative language and soaring patriotic & free enterprise rhetoric. If I closed my eyes, it sounded like he was giving one of my speeches on the Declaration of Independence and a defense of “the pursuit of happiness” right out of my book, Freedom’s Frame. If I believed he truly was a converted conservative that would govern the way he is talking, I’d be excited. But I don’t buy it. I still believe he is just a slick politician that has had 5 years and millions of dollars to simply shift his rhetoric to where the votes are in the republican primary and he’ll shift right back when he thinks he needs to for political expediency. So the real question for me after tonight, is that if he impressed a skeptic like me, did he do so well as to win over a lot of the leery conservatives who feel like they have nowhere else to go now that all the other conservatives seem so unelectable? South Carolina and Florida will answer that question for the rest of the nation.

2.         Santorum was not attacked as much as I expected, but he still did not seem ready or capable to deftly handle the level of scrutiny that is only beginning. He just does not inspire and he still strikes me as having the quirks and rigidity that will make it impossible for him to win…but he has about two more weeks to prove me wrong. Mitt saved Santorum tonight by taking on the absolutely ridiculous “contraceptive” issue. Even though it took a painful 15 minutes, Mitt finally, reluctantly (because he is always so timid in being willing to throw a punch), knocked Mr. Snuffleupagus (I know that’s not George’s name, but I’ve called him that since he worked for Clinton) out and embarrassed the ABC folks for this stupid line of questioning. Anyway, back to Santorum. Not a terrible night, but nothing there to convince me yet that he can really last. He seemed not ready for prime time and still had not shed the annoying communication style that will cost him dearly. He had several one liner jokes that were really good material, but his mannerisms and facial expressions and tonality never gave us the chance to laugh…blown opportunities that fuel my fears about his effectiveness on this stage.

3.         Newt was great as always, especially on slamming media and exposing the anti-Christian bias.  Has anyone noticed how often the other candidates say “just as Newt said?” He was masterful on the enormity of the radical Islam question. Newt, like Santorum, has to battle the “I’m angry at the world” communication style…but he just seems to pull it off in a way that makes us feel he is knowledgeable and serious, not self-righteous and condescending. He and Mitt are the only ones that consistently come across as completely capable of handling the job from day one. I did NOT say they were they only ones capable, I simply said they are the only ones that consistently come across that way. Which means that even though the two Ricks can definitely do the job, people that don’t know them are not being convinced right now.

4.         Perry had some of his best answers since the first debate and some of the best answers of the night. He especially did well when he inserted himself towards the end with a very articulate, passionate, and inspiring answer about the right vision and policies that can get things working again. The other answer I liked best was when he criticized Obama’s Administration for their war on religion. Perry was much better spoken tonight and continues to get better and better in the debates. Whether it’s too little too late remains to be seen, but he is doing the right things to be in a position to be the go to guy if two things happen:  1) Santorum falters fast, and 2) the attacks on Newt keep him from being the conservative alternative.

5.         Ron Paul consistently good and bad, not much different than he always is. I’m not sure who got the best of his exchange with Newt over supposed draft dodging. Newt rattled off a very strong list of military bona fides that made Paul look like he over-reached. However, I always think the guy that actually put on the uniform and risked his life wins these questions no matter what the other guy has done…so Paul & Perry are the only ones of the remaining six with that advantage. Perry could have knocked this one out of the park when given the softball question , but he chose to go to another issue with his answer…not the strategy I would have advised, but his answer turned out to be good enough to keep me from complaining much…I just think he missed a big opportunity. Paul also over-reached in his attack on Santorum, but I loved Paul’s final comment of the night when they were asked where they would be if not at the debate…he said he’d be at home reading an economics textbook. That had me laughing.

6.         Huntsman…did he really speak Mandarin during the debate or was I watching a Saturday Night Live skit? He’s going nowhere fast. He defended Civil Unions, said he would not send in troops if there was a chance they would not come home alive (I’m sorry, but that’s just naïve), went soft on China, and he makes me feel like I’m back in college listening to a boring professor that is going to dock my grade if I skip class like I want to more and more as the semester goes on.

Style matters and candidates have got to become better at articulating the message and selling conservatism. It’s a sad irony. Moderates like Romney learn to sell conservatism well in order to mask their record, while conservatives think their record will sell conservatism…but it takes BOTH true conservative convictions/actions AND the ability to sell them & articulate them.

The bottom line is that at this point the republican party is poised to elect style over substance simply because Romney has become the most polished candidate and has learned how to talk the conservative language, while the true conservatives are unable to bring all conservatives together because they either don’t articulate their own truly conservative beliefs well (Santorum and Perry) or their flaws are outweighing their well articulated beliefs and record (Newt).

I hope it does not end up that way, but that’s where the odds are favored. I do still hold out hope that Santorum, Perry, or Newt can be the last conservative standing after Iowa and get the others behind him. I can envision scenarios where it could be any of the three, but if they all three stay in after Florida, expect Romney to be the nominee and that gives Obama a very good chance at re-election.

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